Sports Betting, Handicapping, Poker playing tips, Trip journals and Whatever else.
I hope you had a great weekend. Some interesting and amazing things happened this weekend, and if you weren’t able to follow along please allow me to illuminate some interesting trends for you.
This opening weekend, NFL underdogs went 11 – 5. This is noteworthy.
Sports betting is gambling, but there are ways to use stats to try to keep your head above water. I was reading the sporting news, line makers column before the season started and this quote really stood out.
“In 2013, NFL favorites covered the spread at a 52.2 percent clip, the highest rate since 2005 and the third highest in the last 25 years. It wasn’t just NFL favorites that covered well – college football favorites covered the spread 52.6 percent of the time, their best performance since 1989 (when they covered 52.9 percent of spreads).
So 2013 was one of the best years on record for football favorites – certainly the best for favorites when considering both pro and college in the modern era of sports betting.”
Now isn’t that interesting? Last year was a pretty good year for favorites. Does that give us any information about this season? According to the Line Makers it does.
“…seasons in which NFL favorites covered more than 51.5 percent are highlighted in yellow. The average for those five seasons was 53.3 percent. In years following those seasons…, favorites covered, on average, just 47 percent of games. That’s a 6.3 percent swing (from 53.3 percent to 47 percent). From blind betting profit on favorites to huge losses in just one season!
For college football, seasons in which favorites’ ATS win percentage was greater than 51.5 percent… The average for those six seasons was 52.8 percent. In the seasons that followed …, favorites won just 47.7 percent ATS. That’s a 5.1 percent swing, again directly through blind profit to massive losses.”
Again, according to past performance (which is not always an indicator of future results) things should swing toward the underdogs this season.
AND THEY DID! If only I would have listened!
I went 8-8 in NFL games against the spread.
I went 3-7 in NCAA games against the spread.
My weekly long shot went 2-6 this week, which I agree is piss poor.
At least we all learned something this week, underdogs are going to be strong this season if history holds up. We can also use this information this week since the first 2 or 3 weeks of the NFL season are kind of a toss up for both the books and the bettors.
To sum up: Dogs are the way to go in the next week or two for both NCAA but definitely for NFL players.
Look for this next weeks picks this Wednesday evening/Thursday Morning.
Good luck out there!