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The Final Four has some premier matchups this year. Tom Izzo has worked his magic again and cemented his legacy as hall of fame coach, as if that was ever in doubt.
But I am here to discuss the bets.
The Duke Blue Devils are favored by 5 points or -5 and the over/under is 139.5. Another interesting fact is that Duke has not won a game in this tournament by less than 6 points. Meaning the low margin being 6 points, this means that Vegas or the pro bettors must love the ‘Tom Izzo magic’ of the Spartans.
Now the Spartans have beaten the best to get here. First they took down Virginia, a 1 seed, Oklahoma a 3 seed and Louisville a 4 seed. Michigan St are battle tested, but I still don’t believe they will win this one. I would need 7.5 points to take Michigan State with the points. Duke on the other hand are performing at a high level and are finishing games well at the foul line for small covers. Now the offensive Kenpom rankings favor Duke 121.4 vs 115.2 for Michigan State. The defensive numbers are just about dead even with Duke at 93.3 and Michigan State at 95.4. Numbers never lie and neither do rosters. While Michigan State are and will be a good opponent, my money has to go on Duke.
As an admitted Duke hater since the days of Shane Battier, they will win this game by 8 points.
I believe the under will be a lock as Duke play for fewer possessions and are the better defensive team, also Michigan State will have no answer for Okafor (6’11” Super Freshman) as their two biggest players are 6’9″ Gavin Schilling (sophomore) & 6’9″ Matt Costello (Junior). Those are the only realistic solutions Michigan St have for that match up nightmare.
My Pick: Duke -5 and the under 139.5 as this game is 72-64. Duke moving on to the title game.
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