3 Game Parlay – Gambling and Winning

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2015 Kentucky Derby Handicapping – 141st Running

Good Afternoon!

Tomorrow is the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby, and we’re as excited as anyone! We’ve handicapped the first 11 races on the Derby day card, and we’re going to be playing the various pick 3’s 4 and even the Lucky 7!

Lets start with Race 1: 1 1/16 Mile, Allowance Optional Claiming.
We’re taking #7 Banner Bill, and we’re keying him with #1 and #4 for a cheap trifecta. Banner Bill has run strong races from a few different posts, with high speed figures in his last couple starts and we don’t believe that will end today.

Race #2: 7 Furlong, Allowance Optional Claiming.
We’re going with #3 Yockey’s Warrior. Yes it’s a new Jock on him, but he does looko good coming off his last start. I’m also big on #1 Roll Tide Roll. He’s 1-0 lifetime and had great numbers in his only other start and win.

Race #3: 1 Mile, Maiden Special Weight.
#2 Thatcher Street is our pick for the third. #9 Reach for a Kitten also got some attention from us.

Race #4: 1 Mile, Allowance Optional Claiming.
For this one, we are a strong fan of #3 Carve. He’s been performing great recently, with a place in his most recent start at Oaklawn for their Oaklawn Handicap. Before that he was just barely 4 in a bumpy trip that was also at Oak Lawn. He started the year will with a win there back in January. Again, we’re big fans of him in the 4th.

Race #5: 1 Mile, Grade 3 stakes, 91st running of the Pat Day Mile.
We like #6 Competitive Edge and #2 Gimme Da Lute. The #6 won’t pay well so we’re going to use him in some exotics with #2, and hopefully get a decent return.

Race #6: 1 mile and 1/16, Grade 2 stakes, 24th running of the American Turf.
Turf race! We gotta go with #8 Conquest Tycoon here. Mike Smith will guide this 3 year old colt to victory!. Conquest is by far the most seasoned horse in this one with a couple stakes race money finishes. The Horse has been with Smith for his last 4 starts of the 2014 season, which I like, and Mike has gotten back to back 100 speed figures from this with a place and a show for it.

Race #7: 7 Furlongs, Grade 1 stakes, 29th running of the Humana Distaff.
At 6 years old #8 Judy the Beauty has caught our eye. She’s also got Mike Smith on board for her first start of 2015. She finished 2014 with a 2 race winning streak that included the Breeders Cup Mare/Filly Sprint win. I also like #1 Sweet Reason if you need a horse for an exotic.

Race #8: 1 Mile, Grade 1 stakes, 30th running of the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile.
#4 Lady Lara from Ireland is the clear choice in this one. Since she came over in October of 2014 she’s started three, won 2 and placed once and she was driving in the place.

Race #9: 7 Furlong, Grade 2, 91st running of the Churchill Downs.
#2 Bayern the Breeders Cup Classic reigning champ. Most likely he won’t be playing much so we’re going with #4 Private Zone and #5 Pants on Fire in a 2 to win, key the 4 and 5 behind, trifecta ticket.

Race #10: 1 Mile and 1/16, 28th running of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic.
We’re a bit split in the office on this. Half of us like #8 Stephanie’s Kitten, and half like #10 Chocolate Ride. Chocolate Ride will pay better, but we might compromise and exacta box them.

Race #11: 1 Mile and 1/4, 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.
I’m one of those horse handicappers that think the derby is almost too difficult to predict. Young horses, all of them are superb, some are even exceptional. In light of that what I’ve done is get a few different points of view, from a few handicappers and I’m setting up a trifecta or superfecta ticket for the race.

We like #3 Materiality, #8 Dortmond, #13 Itsaknockout, #15 Frosted, #18 American Pharoah. Of those horses we’re going to take #3, #8, #15, #18 and set up a few exacta and triple tickets, and then one with all 5 as a super. the way I set up my tickets, I’ll take the 3 horses I’m strongest on and create a ticket with them winning then the rest behind. A boxed or wheel (both words should work) trifecta with a keyed horse is what you tell the teller.

So we’ll key the #3 to win, box or wheel the 8, 15, 18 behind the #3 in any order. This means that you want the $3 to win the race and the other 3 horses you named can finish in any order behind the #3 I’d also do the same with the #15 and #18 winning with the others boxed behind.

Good luck out there and tell you friends where you got the winners from!

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This entry was posted on May 1, 2015 by in Horse Racing and tagged , , , .
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