Sports Betting, Handicapping, Poker playing tips, Trip journals and Whatever else.
Tonight, after all the talk, the years of negotiations, the public discussion of random blood tests and fight purses and promoters licenses, IT IS FIGHT NIGHT!
So The most recent lines we’ve seen are Floyd Mayweather -200, Manny Pacquiao +185. Those are to win the fight by any means, KO, Decision, TKO, anything, just win.
My pick for the best bet is Floyd Mayweather wins by decision. Vegas Chatter sees it at -125 at William Hill sports books.
Here’s why this is the best bet.
Ask any fight analyst, they’ll tell you that Floyd just does not get hit. He’s got a great Philly shell defense where he tucks his chin behind his left shoulder and then waits and counter punches opponents until he wins on points. He’s been doing this defensive genius work at an exceptionally high level since Derby day of 2007 against Oscar De La Hoya. He’s not been badly beaten up by anyone he has faced even larger men like Cotto, Alvarez or Judah.
That won’t change against Manny. He’s definitely not getting KO’d and he’s probably not getting out pointed.
Only chance I see for Manny to win involves a serious out working Floyd in the early rounds, which will give him a small point advantage. Manny would then have to somehow knock Floyd down. Exactly. I saw knock him down because Floyd generally doesn’t come out working fast and hard. In the fight against Marcos Maidana Floyd was outworked and wound up with a SD in the first fight. If Maidana had managed a knockdown, he might have gotten a SD win. That is the type of fight I think Manny would have to fight to get the decision win.
Good luck out there, and if you’re interested, here’s our 2015 Kentucky Derby Handicapping post.