Sports Betting, Handicapping, Poker playing tips, Trip journals and Whatever else.
Good Morning Gamblers!
Once again, I will spend this NFL season picking five games against the spread (ATS) each week. Click here to see last years results. (spoiler alert, I only picked 13 weeks and I went 36-33-2 for the 2015 Season!) Not amazing, but just about break even. I’ll improve this year, or if I don’t you can be entertained reading about me trying to.
The reason I only pick five games is because of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook contest. What is that? It’s the premier NFL sports handicapping contest in the US, and is a season long handicapping contest that allows players to pick any 5 games they like each week ATS. The scores are based on 1 point per correct pick and the winner is the player who has the highest point total at the end of week 17 of the NFL season.
Generally, the winner will pick around 60-65% of the games correctly. That is pretty good! To break even with sports better you will need to pick 52% of the games correctly. (the link explains how money line and point spread bets work) It’s higher than 50% because of the 10% vig (a.k.a house advantage) that comes with picking point spread bets. They don’t pay you even money when you win a point spread bet. You get paid 90% and the house keeps 10%, that is their profit.
As in years past, I’ll have a recap page that’s updated each Tuesday with my stats from the week before. You’ll also be able to find my pick on pickmonitor.com, it requires you to set up an account, but it’s free.
Week 1 Picks:
Cleveland +4.5 over Philadelphia – Everyone thinks the Browns are a terrible team. RG3 is seen as washed up, Josh Gordon is back, but not until week 11, new coach and new system on offense will take time to gel. Well the Eagles are also running a new system, with a new coach and a fucking rookie QB, from a FCS school. Eagles D is average and RG3 is healthy, at least for this one game. I think the Browns win this out outright.
Green Bay -4.5 over Jacksonville – Green Bay went 0-3 in season openers from 2011-2014, but last season they won their opener. I think that will happen again. A Rogers has 2 healthy receivers again, Eddy Lacy is healthy, the Packer Defense is strong and ready. Jacksonville overachieved a bit last year, and this game begins their return to the 6-10 Jax we all know and love.
New Orleans -0.5 over Oakland – The Saints will make the playoffs and today’s season opener against Oakland will showcase their still strong offense. Drew Brees just got a contract extension and he’s happy and ready to ruin a solid Oakland D. The Oakland D is solid, but their O is relying on Derek Carr. Can’t trust that against Drew Brees, at least not yet.
Miami +10.5 over Seattle – As a general rule, I pick the underdog in almost all NFL games that have a double digit spread. This is not the NCAA, and all of the NFL teams have talent at every position. It’s more of a scheme and mental preparation game in the NFL, than it is a overwhelming use of force kind of game. Miami isn’t going to win, but they’ll hang in there for the cover. Miami’s Defense is strong enough to cover Doug Baldwin, and a hurt Jimmy Graham and Thomas Rawls.
NY Giants -0.5 over Dallas – A rookie QB making his first start vs a divisional rival with a 2 time Super Bowl winning QB? Easy choice for me. It’s easy to pick the winner in a game like that.
Good luck out there and I’ll post the recap on Tuesday!!