Sports Betting, Handicapping, Poker playing tips, Trip journals and Whatever else.
This week I’m playing in mostly 50/50 contests and low entry fee multipliers.
QB Tom Brady – Patriots @ Jets. Tom had a 4 TD game last week on the road against the awful Niners. The Jets have a pretty good looking defense on paper, in terms of yards allowed. However, they suck in DVOA. DVOA is an advanced stat that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. It was created by Football Outsiders, a group that is creating advanced stats for the NFL. A deeper explanation is given by them here. DVOA has the Browns & Jets at the bottom of the league. The other three in the bottom five are Houston, Jacksonville and S.F. I think that data matches up with my eye test from watching the games. If Tom ruined S.F. on the road he’ll handle the Jets as well.
RB Rashad Jennings – Giants are playing on the road in Cleveland. Jennings should get all the goal line work and heavily factor in the running game, all against the worst team defense in the league. Jennings is priced low, you should grab him.
RB David Johnson – Solid weekly star playing Atlanta, they’re 28th in total yards allowed.
WR Kenny Britt – Might have some chemistry with Rookie QB Jared Goff, he got the most targets and catches last week. New Orleans is also not a strong defense.
WR Malcolm Mitchell – Had a good game vs S.F. last week, I’m handcuffing him with Brady in case Chris Hogan is still out this week.
WR DeVante Parker – Had a good game against the L.A. Defense last week, and playing against S.F. this week at home. I’m getting him for a very low price ($4700) and he should have a solid day against a soft defense.
TE Travis Kelce – Kelce has been regularly getting the highest number of targets and receptions for the Chiefs.
FLEX Jay Ajayi – Facing the S.F. below-average defense. Should have a decent game.
DST Raiders – Oakland are facing the Panthers and I like the odds of Cam Newton taking several sacks and throwing at least 1 INT or losing a fumble.
Good luck out there!